Monday, January 24, 2011

Creative writing -1

Okay not 2 paragraphs just one; but hey "baby steps". It describes what i was thinking when i was sitting in a airplane recently.

I am lost in my in-flight magazine with only the irritating but strangely hypnotic cabin music to ignore. In time safety instructions are issued, passengers trudge in, disregarding all this i ignore life. The plane nonchalantly trundles along, just another moment in a boring life.

The plane stops, a few seconds of silence and suddenly violence assails my senses, the ferocity of physics drags me from my mental stupor and drowns me in life. 

Post script: Is it too early for me to start thinking of sending airmails to Norway.

Heads up

One of my favourite pet theories is the one which talks about dealing with the potential of "bottom of the pyramid". This can encompass everything from markets to social and cultural phenomenon. In India TATA "Nano" is the most visible example of such an attempt. I will try to look at this concept through the traditional idea of importance of credit expansion; in the present context it would mean personal reflections on the Malegam Committe report on "Micro-finance" institutions. I will be handicapped in this analysis with lack of adequate industry experience and will depend primarily on open source information.

I am also trying to write a short opinion piece on why the "Taliban" winning in Afghanistan may be good for India. Also as part of my 10,000 project am trying to dabble in creative writing and will put up my first original work (only 2 paragraphs) of quasi-fiction in some hours.

In reply to Sushant K Singh

A few days ago Acorn posted the following article entry:
"http://acorn.nationalinterest.in/2011/01/18/scrap-offsets-and-foreign-investment-caps/#comments"; For the record i believe that the blog "Acorn" and other affiliated blogs, sites and magazines are an interesting attempt at articulating Indian opinion and any criticism on my part should not be considered to be against the site.

The article talked about the problems with offsets in defence contracts and how recent modifications by the Indian government were a death knell for this policy. Further the author suggested the scrapping of offsets to jump start the Indian private defence industry. I agree to one of his suggestions but am against his conclusions; my dissent is given below.

Dear Mr. Sushant,
This article may be called a good primer for the uninitiated to the topic of ‘Defence Offsets’ (henceforth DFO). However i have a few objections to the conclusions drawn here.

Offsets began as a policy decision in the post 2nd WW era, when western Europe was being re-built and outfitted by USA for the cold war. DFOs helped W-Europe to channel its defence spending to productive national causes. The present article looks at the changes in the DFO policy of India as so many nails to the offset policy coffin. In my personal opinion the situation does not warrant such a bleak outlook. The changes may be considered to be a part of the learning curve for handling technology imports through a private sector initiative. This is an unavoidable situation for India due to the lack of a pvt sector defence capability.
To understand the present situation on DFOs, we need to understand why it introduced in the first place.
India is on an unprecedented expansion of its armed forces. A conservative estimate pegs India’s defence spending by 2022 to be around 100 billion dollars . With the current DFO limit being 30% of a contract value and if the above amount is assumed to be a reasonable figure then domestic manufacturers will get orders worth 21 billion dollars. However the Indian defence offset policy was undeveloped in the area of managing this massive inflow.
To cite a few areas:
1. The idea of multipliers was absent in the offset policy. Hence offsets pertaining to multi-functional display (MFDs) would be on par with offsets dealing with jet engines or AESA radar technology or submarine hull fabrication know-how.
2. Identification of industries which are considered to be priorities for domestic defence industry development. An attempt was made by introducing the concept of ‘Rakhsa Udyog Ratnas’ (RURs), however the same was scuttled due to opposition by the OFBs and other DPSUs.
3. Creation of a national offset policy with a hierarchy of requirements and a clear roadmap laid out for the duration of the Long Term Integrated Perspective Plan (LTIPP).

The author does identify the problem of low FDI as a significant hurdle to building partnerships with foreign players. The easiest solution to this problem would be to increase the FDI limit to at least 49%. However in a deadlock as in the present situation, the Govt may follow the selective route of allowing FDI through the approval instead of an automatic route. This will not require dramatic changes to the present policy along with retaining a measure of control over foreign access to domestic industries.

There are a number of other additions that may be made to the DFO policy including allowing offset trading and increasing the tenure for banking of DFO. However I fail to understand how the author of this article is suggesting that the ‘offset policy’ per se be dismantled due to perceived problems. This is akin to throwing the baby out with the bath water.

Using the example of a Czech aviation firm, he seems to make a case for allowing higher FDI limits. However to make a case for the removal of offsets as a policy, the author will have to provide more inputs as well as examples to make his case. Presently he is only pointing out the inadequacies of Indian DFO policy; to prove his point he will need to argue on-
1. The actual harm caused to the Indian private and-or public sector defence industry due to the offset policy.
2. As a corollary, how imports of defence equipment without a DFO policy will contribute and help the DPSUs and pvt industry build capacity.

I hope that Mr. Sushant or the blog admin for "Acorn" takes the time to respond to these queries.